Games industry predictions for 2025 part three: Rewarded UA, the year of AI, and price pressure on Western devs

Keep Knowledgeable

Get Business Information In Your Inbox…

Signal Up At this time

It is the brand new yr, so meaning it is the right time for our Cellular Professionals — a set of video games business specialists — to provide their ideas on the yr forward. We requested:

What are your predictions for the video games business in 2025?

You’ll be able to learn half considered one of our predictions sequence right here, and half two right here.

Uncover extra in regards to the hottest video games business traits of the yr at Pocket Gamer Connects London 2025 on January twentieth to twenty first.

Generative AI in sport improvement: 2025 predictions

AI-generated video games gained’t take over

Regardless of speedy advances in AI know-how, Giant Language Fashions (LLMs) stay removed from creating full video games autonomously.

Present demonstrations primarily showcase sample recognition and adaptation somewhat than true innovation, sometimes restricted to easy video games like Flappy Birds, Tetris, or Snake — video games with numerous present implementations that LLMs have encountered in coaching.

The video revolution

As video era reaches sensible high quality ranges by means of breakthroughs like Open AI’s SORA and Hunyuan video, its influence on sport improvement turns into clearer. The know-how’s rapid utility will seemingly deal with sport promoting, enabling speedy iteration of promotional content material and idea testing for video games nonetheless in improvement.

3D property: The subsequent frontier

Whereas picture era has achieved outstanding high quality with fashions like Flux and Steady Diffusion 3.5, the business’s subsequent problem lies in 3D asset era. Early developments, significantly from CSM AI, counsel 2025 will see 3D era attain industrial viability. Fixing the consistency problem

A essential milestone for sport improvement will likely be attaining constant character and elegance era throughout a number of photos. This functionality, important for each storyboarding and asset creation, lastly seems inside attain due to improvements like Flux Redux, Luma Photon, and different latest analysis works.

Business-wide integration

The adoption of generative AI in sport improvement has turn into inevitable. As remaining skepticism fades, these instruments will turn into commonplace throughout all elements of improvement — from design and idea artwork to asset era and Coding.

LLMs: Plateauing however sensible

Whereas LLM capabilities could also be approaching a plateau, their present performance already gives vital worth. The focus will shift from breakthrough capabilities to optimising present options and enhancing implementation in improvement workflows.

Indie builders empowered

Generative AI is democratising sport improvement, offering impartial builders with instruments that permit the creation of video games with minimal sources. This can result in a surge in revolutionary and experimental video games from smaller groups.

In 2025, I anticipate AI-driven sport improvement. Instruments powered by AI will proceed to remodel workflows, enabling sooner, extra revolutionary creation processes.

Hybrid monetisation fashions will proceed to develop on the cellular video games market. Subscriptions will complement free-to-play techniques, providing new worth propositions for gamers.

We will even see a improvement of a seamless cross-platform ecosystem the place video games will turn into more and more accessible throughout gadgets, breaking down obstacles for gamers.

Making predictions is rarely simple, however I imagine that video games with enjoyable and low-pressure gameplay will proceed to carry customers’ consideration. On the similar time, extra intricate and addictive initiatives, like our Ludus, have the potential to draw and retain a broad viewers. For my part, such video games will preserve dominating the market.

That mentioned, as I’ve talked about earlier than, creating video games is turning into more and more difficult with every passing yr. Folks have much less free time, and we have to provide them experiences which can be brief but charming. That is why each profitable sport is, in its personal approach, a small miracle!

2025 will likely be a yr of consolidation and innovation. GenAI will evolve from being a device to turning into a real differentiator, reshaping creativity and decision-making.

We’ll additionally see an elevated deal with professionalising operations and driving effectivity to guard profitability and gas development in a maturing market.

Cellular sport distribution will proceed to alter. Google and Apple are being compelled to open up at a speedy tempo significantly within the UK, US and Japan. Stress on them will improve dramatically in 2025, particularly from the federal government degree.

As AI develops, it could actually make video games and the video games business extra personalised. Manufacturing occasions will shorten.

In our direct expertise, conversations, and observations from our co-development work with companions in addition to unique in-house improvement, we imagine that the video games business will begin to flip a nook in 2025 and expertise development within the coming years.

Whereas there will likely be continued downward worth strain on Western builders, which studios must be ready to handle, we additionally imagine that there will likely be renewed curiosity from publishers in funding each unique and licensed IPs in addition to extensions to present franchises.

Builders with confirmed monitor information, the flexibility to be agile, and an expanded world footprint that helps high-quality, well timed manufacturing will likely be in a robust place going into 2025 and 2026.

Laborious occasions for small studios and indies, good occasions for giant publishers. Extra consolidation in what’s going to basically be a patrons market. 

Rewarded UA will proceed to develop, however I’m anticipating to see consolidation there, in a really comparable vogue.

I’d additionally like to see the rewarded house evolve from specializing in UA to doing extra superior rewards-based engagement metrics— we already do a number of that at ZBD, however thus far it has been simpler for publishers to see the worth in rewarded fashions when tied to UA. This can start to alter.

Carriers and alternate shops will take the lead in cellular app distribution 

The app retailer ecosystem is ready to shift away from an Apple and Google duopoly to an open panorama as cellular carriers regain the ability to attach shoppers with apps.

Rising regulatory adjustments, akin to bans that stop Google from incentivising app retailer preloads, will degree the taking part in subject by permitting carriers and system producers to preload their very own apps and platforms on new gadgets.

This renewed autonomy positions carriers as essential gamers in different app distribution, enabling natural development for different app shops. Because of this, carriers will provide builders higher income alternatives past what Apple and Google present, and current shoppers with a extra various app choice.

By embracing this strategic benefit, carriers are poised to reclaim their function as app suppliers and drive change within the evolving app retailer surroundings.

Various app shops will reshape cellular distribution by prioritising builders and shoppers

The brand new, open app retailer economic system will prioritise the wants of builders and customers, shifting away from the present mannequin that solely serves Apple and Google.

On this new distribution mannequin, the app retailer ecosystem will see a aggressive, decentralised panorama the place builders have extra management over income and shoppers achieve entry to a greater diversity of apps curated and tailor-made to their wants.

With rising affect of third-party app shops, and as main gamers like Epic Video games and Microsoft push for inclusivity in distribution, the app outlook is ready to develop globally and mirror the thriving different shops seen in Asia.

This shift will allow cellular app distribution to be extra inclusive, revolutionary, and consumer-focused, and the worldwide app surroundings will evolve right into a dynamic market that prioritises innovation and person wants.