Hodler’s Digest, Dec. 29 – Jan. 4 – Cointelegraph Magazine

High Tales of The Week

Odds of 2025 US Solana ETF itemizing prime 77%: VanEck analysis head

The percentages of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) itemizing in america this yr are even greater than a well-liked betting market’s optimistic forecast, in line with Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital property analysis. 

On Jan. 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket mentioned the percentages of a US Solana ETF itemizing in 2025 are round 77%. In a publish on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as “underpriced.” 

Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of extra crypto ETF listings within the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Trump mentioned he needs to make America “the world’s crypto capital.”

Prediction markets work by letting customers commerce contracts tied to particular occasions, with costs fluctuating dynamically based mostly on anticipated outcomes. Polymarket’s projected ETF itemizing odds elevated to roughly 84% as of Jan. 2, in line with its web site.

Terraform co-founder Do Kwon seems earlier than US decide, pleads not responsible

Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon appeared earlier than a US Justice of the Peace on Jan. 2, 2025, and pleaded not responsible to costs within the first authorized listening to for the previous tech government since his extradition to the US.

The embattled crypto founder appeared in Manhattan earlier than US Justice of the Peace Choose Robert W. Lehrburger of the Southern District of New York on Thursday afternoon to submit his plea and agreed to be held with out bail.

The previous tech government faces 9 counts of assorted costs, together with securities fraud, wire fraud, cash laundering costs and commodities fraud, for his function within the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.

A standing convention is ready for Jan. 8, 2025, for the protection and the prosecution to share proof and talk about motions main into the trial.

The listening to marks a milestone within the authorized saga of the previous tech government, which has taken a number of turns since 2023, as Montenegrin court docket officers weighed extraditing the Terraform co-founder to america or his homeland of South Korea.

Memecoins will proceed to lose market share to AI agent cash: Dragonfly VC

AI agent tokens will proceed outperforming memecoins in 2025, however their momentum might fizzle out by 2026, in line with a enterprise capitalist.

“Memecoins will proceed to lose market share to ‘AI agent’ cash. I contemplate this a migration from monetary nihilism to monetary over-optimism,” Dragonfly Capital managing associate Haseeb Qureshi mentioned in a Jan. 1 X publish.

Qureshi mentioned the “AI agent craze” will in all probability persist via 2025, however it received’t final eternally. As extra superior AI merchandise come alongside, individuals will lose curiosity in social media chatbots.

“It would die off finally. This isn’t the long-term disruption to be careful for from AI, however will probably be CT’s fixation as a result of it’s the most social,” he mentioned.

AI agent chatbots have turn out to be fashionable within the crypto {industry}, providing crypto customers insights and market value predictions.

Over the previous 24 hours, complete memecoin buying and selling quantity dropped nearly 21.5%, whereas buying and selling quantity among the many prime AI and information tokens rose by 7.95%, in line with CoinMarketCap.

China tightens crypto commerce oversight with new foreign exchange guidelines

China’s State Administration of Overseas Trade launched guidelines requiring the nation’s banks to watch and flag dangerous trades involving crypto property.

On Dec. 31, the South China Morning Submit reported that mainland China’s new guidelines will make it tougher for residents to purchase digital property. 

Beneath the foundations, banks should monitor and report dangerous foreign currency trading actions. This contains cross-border playing, underground banks and unlawful cross-border monetary actions involving crypto property. 

Chinese language regulators additionally require banks to trace the actions based mostly on the identification of people and establishments concerned, their sources of funds and the frequency of their trades. 

Liu Zhengyao, a lawyer on the ZhiHeng legislation agency in Shanghai, mentioned that the brand new guidelines will present one other foundation for punishing crypto buying and selling, and added that China’s regulatory stance towards crypto might proceed to tighten. 

IRS points momentary aid on crypto cost-basis methodology adjustments

America Inside Income Service (IRS) has issued a short lived aid for a rule that will have defaulted crypto holders on centralized exchanges to a less-than-ideal accounting methodology.

The preliminary IRS ruling said that if buyers holding crypto property with a CeFi dealer don’t choose their most popular accounting methodology, like HIFO (Highest In, First Out) or particular identification, the dealer will default to reporting gross sales utilizing the FIFO methodology.

FIFO, in any other case often called “First In, First Out,” is the default methodology for calculating capital features tax within the US. It’s calculated by assuming the oldest cryptocurrency purchased is offered first, pushing up a taxpayer’s capital features. 

“You received’t should be locked into FIFO as earlier than,” Cointracker head of tax technique Shehan Chandrasekera mentioned in a Dec. 31 X publish. 

Chandrasekera warned that imposing this rule instantly may have “been disastrous” for a lot of crypto taxpayers throughout a bull market.

Winners and Losers

On the finish of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $96,601, Ether (ETH) at $3,448 and XRP at $2.42. The overall market cap is at $3.40 trillion, in line with CoinMarketCap.

Among the many greatest 100 cryptocurrencies, the highest three altcoin gainers of the week are DeXe (DEXE) at 59.13%, SPX6900 (SPX) at 55.02% and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) at 41.76%.

The highest three altcoin losers of the week are Bitget Token (BGB) at 15.94%, Motion (MOVE) at 13.69% and Hyperliquid (HYPE) at 12.73%. For more information on crypto costs, be sure that to learn Cointelegraph’s market evaluation.

Most Memorable Quotations

“What started as a satirical commentary on cryptocurrency with Dogecoin has advanced into a classy market vertical that pulls vital capital flows and institutional consideration.”

DWF Labs, crypto enterprise capital agency

“Institutional adoption is anticipated to succeed in unparalleled ranges, additional bolstered by vital inflows into U.S.-based Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.”

Steno Analysis, unbiased monetary analysis agency

“Whereas the potential for a brand new catalyst can’t be dominated out, we wouldn’t be shocked if Ethereum struggles to ship significant rallies subsequent yr.”

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Analysis

“For my part, a number of weeks of consolidation may set the stage for an enormous breakout. $131.5K+ by Q1 2025 feels inevitable. See you there.”

Jason Williams, entrepreneur and investor

“Present brokers can simply be manipulated into saying loopy issues that harm their manufacturers, or may be jailbroken to steal all of their assets.”

Haseeb Qureshi, managing associate at Dragonfly Capital

“Rising narratives like AI-driven investments, decentralized AI brokers, and tokenized property trace at a tech-driven shift, although with added threat.”

Alvin Kan, chief working officer at Bitget Pockets

Prediction of The Week

Ether may battle to ship significant rallies in 2025: 10x Analysis

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Analysis, mentioned Ether may not be the wisest funding selection for a 2025 bull run, because the asset might ship underwhelming returns in contrast with Bitcoin. 

Different analysts mentioned they’re ready for extra affirmation from the worth charts to see which approach it can go.

“Whereas the potential for a brand new catalyst can’t be dominated out, we wouldn’t be shocked if Ethereum struggles to ship significant rallies subsequent yr,” Thielen mentioned in a Dec. 30 market report.

“Whereas we admire Ethereum’s volatility, we imagine it stays a poor medium-term funding and anticipate ETH to underperform BTC as soon as once more in 2025,” Thielen mentioned. “In consequence, our stance on Ethereum stays clear: ‘keep away from.’”

Thielen mentioned some of the essential metrics to observe in 2025 would be the pattern in lively validators. Nonetheless, he famous that the expansion charge of validators had turned destructive, dropping by about 1% over the previous 30 days, elevating issues concerning the rising threat of extra validators exiting the community.

FUD of The Week

Cybertruck explosion at Trump resort linked to bomb or fireworks: Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk mentioned a bomb or fireworks brought about a Tesla Cybertruck explosion outdoors the Trump Worldwide Resort in Las Vegas, in what authorities are investigating as a attainable act of terror.

Explosive supplies had been carried within the mattress of the rented Cybertruck and thus weren’t associated to the Cybertruck itself, Musk mentioned in a Jan. 1 follow-up publish on X after confirming that Tesla was investigating the incident: “All car telemetry was optimistic on the time of the explosion.”

Police have mentioned that the Cybertruck was crammed with fireworks mortars, gasoline tanks and tenting gasoline.

Officers haven’t confirmed the identification of the motive force of the Cybertruck, who was killed within the explosion that wounded seven others, however mentioned a joint investigation of federal, state and native authorities was working to establish the suspect and decide if it was an act of terrorism.

“Present findings counsel this was an remoted incident with no indication of a bigger plan,” the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Division mentioned in a publish on X.

Unlawful crypto advertisements prevail in UK regardless of FCA warning

Unlawful crypto advertisements proceed to seem in the UK regardless of its monetary regulator asking crypto initiatives to take away their commercials focusing on the nation. 

In response to a Monetary Occasions report, 54% of the 1,702 alerts issued by the UK’s Monetary Conduct Authority (FCA) between October 2023 and October 2024 led to unlawful crypto advertisements being taken down. The report mentioned the remainder of the crypto-related promotions are nonetheless up. 

The FCA has not but fined corporations that did not take away crypto advertisements that violate the FCA’s guidelines. Rules require digital asset promotions to get approvals from the FCA or an FCA-authorized enterprise earlier than going stay. 

High Journal Tales of The Week

How crypto legal guidelines are altering internationally in 2025

Crypto companies are leaving Europe as laws tighten, however the future is brighter in America as crypto pleasant regulators take over.

I grew to become an Ordinals RBF sniper to get wealthy… however I misplaced most of my Bitcoin

I educated underneath the steerage of a clever previous Bitcoin RBF sniper and landed within the crossfire of a battle between snipers and NFT marketplaces.

Right down to $200 in the future, Pixels founder had $2.4M the following: Luke Barwikowski, X Corridor of Flame

Luke Barwikowski says the early days of constructing Pixels had been spent juggling work on a dairy farm, staying in surf hostels and crusing in New Zealand.

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Cointelegraph Journal writers and reporters contributed to this text.