The sticker shock of Nintendo’s $449.99 pricing for Swap 2 has not but subsided — and it may but get even worse, if Nintendo decides to extend the value additional in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. However the excessive worth for Nintendo’s new console may need an surprising consequence for its outdated one.
The unique Nintendo Swap has bought 150 million items, making it the third-best-selling console of all time. Forward of it are Nintendo DS, at 154 million items, and PlayStation 2, at over 160 million, based on Sony. My assumption had been that the Swap would be capable of declare second place from the DS, however that the all-time console crown would most likely elude it. Now, I’m not so positive.
Let’s take a look at the maths. Nintendo predicted it will promote 11 million Switches throughout its most up-to-date fiscal yr, which simply ended. This represents a really steep 30% drop from the earlier yr’s gross sales — a pattern that, I assumed, would get even worse as soon as the Swap 2 was on sale.
Regardless, it’s a provided that the Swap will finally promote sufficient to outstrip the DS; if, as Nintendo predicted, 1.5 million Switches have been bought within the first quarter of 2025, then it’s already as much as 152 million in lifetime gross sales. However which means to surpass PS2, Nintendo must promote 8 million extra items after the Swap 2 is launched on June 5. It will take, maybe, two years of regular gross sales to shift that many, and it was onerous to think about the growing older console sustaining that form of momentum.
That doesn’t appear so onerous to think about now. Contemplate the pricing tiers of what Nintendo likes to name “the Nintendo Swap household of consoles.” The Swap Lite is $199.99. The Swap is $299.99. The OLED Swap is $349.99. And now we all know that the Swap 2 will price $449.99 (at the very least).
Solely the OLED Swap, the present premium providing, seems to be prefer it now not has a spot in that lineup. The opposite fashions all occupy markedly completely different worth factors and worth propositions. The Swap 2’s worth level is excessive sufficient to place it in a unique class altogether, competing with PlayStation 5 and Xbox Sequence X and the brand new wave of PC handhelds.
Contemplate, too, the type of people that purchase Nintendo Swap consoles who aren’t gaming fanatics. They’re households, dad and mom, informal avid gamers. The household angle is especially pertinent. At $449.99, the Swap 2 is no person’s thought of My First Sport Console. However new avid gamers are born yearly, and their sixth and seventh and eighth birthdays and all these Christmases are nonetheless going to roll round, no matter whether or not there’s a brand new Nintendo console at an applicable worth to fill that want. These children’ dad and mom are most likely going to go for an older-model Swap and never fear about the truth that it has few new video games popping out, when their little ones have eight years’ price of one of many deepest again catalogs in gaming historical past to dig into. (Belief me on this — I’m a type of dad and mom.)
It’s additionally doubtless that none of those worth factors are altering even after the Swap 2 comes out. Nintendo didn’t decrease the Swap’s worth in any respect throughout its lifespan, and the identical is prone to be true of the Swap 2. So it’s affordable to assume {that a} $199.99 Swap Lite would possibly nonetheless appear to be a tempting proposition to a brand new gamer in two years’ time.
On this situation, the largest problem Nintendo faces in racking up additional Swap gross sales is software program. Consoles do want new video games to outlive, and the Swap’s launch schedule is sure to dry up considerably as soon as Nintendo’s in-house studios transfer on to the brand new {hardware} and third-party publishers have an excuse to not fear about its weak tech specs anymore.
However the Swap does have two main system-selling releases for the 2025 vacation season, within the type of Metroid Prime 4: Past and Pokémon Legends: Z-A. And Nintendo has even introduced two 2026 video games for the console, Tomodachi Life: Residing the Dream and Rhythm Heaven Groove, indicating that it’s ready to maintain supporting the Swap for some time but. Indie builders whose video games don’t require a lot graphical horsepower will most likely proceed to publish on the Swap, too. Due to its gigantic set up base, the Swap would possibly take pleasure in an extended interval of cross-gen releases than you’d usually anticipate — in step with the unusually lengthy transitional interval from PS4 and Xbox One to PS5 and Xbox Sequence X that we’ve simply seen.
All of which is to say, I feel the Swap may nonetheless stick round for one more two years at the very least, promoting 1-2 million consoles per quarter and extra across the holidays. This could give it simply sufficient momentum to rack up these 8 million gross sales and reel in PS2 — which, by the best way, itself loved a really lengthy gross sales tail after the PS3 was launched at a then-eye-watering $499.
No person is completely happy in regards to the Swap 2’s pricing — not even Nintendo, I think, which could have most popular to cost it at $399 if inflation, the price of elements, and people dreaded “evolving market situations” had allowed. However no person can deny that the Swap is without doubt one of the all-time nice online game consoles, and that it deserves an extended victory lap — and an opportunity to take a pop on the king.